COMAC to Triple Aircraft Deliveries by 2030
China’s state-owned aircraft manufacturer, COMAC, is forecasted to more than triple its annual aircraft deliveries by 2030, as reported by aviation analytics firm IBA.
Projected Deliveries
The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) plans to deliver 145 aircraft annually by the decade’s end, marking significant progress towards establishing a competitive commercial aviation industry in China. According to IBA Insight, COMAC’s delivery schedule is as follows:
- 50 aircraft in 2025
- 57 in 2026
- 79 in 2027
- Approximately 90 in 2028
- 145 deliveries in 2030
The majority of these deliveries will be the C919 narrow-body jets, supplemented by the continued production of the ARJ21 regional jet, and development on the C929 widebody aircraft.
Domestic and Global Market Presence
By 2030, COMAC is anticipated to supply about 65% of new narrow-body aircraft to Chinese airlines. Yet, it will only account for roughly 7% of the total fleet when older Airbus and Boeing aircraft are taken into account. Globally, the C919 and ARJ21 will constitute merely 2% of the commercial aircraft fleet in 2030, though this signifies a start to challenging the Airbus-Boeing duopoly.
Challenges COMAC Faces
Despite advancements, COMAC grapples with several challenges. The resumption of US export licenses in July 2025 has aided production stability by enabling the delivery of essential engines—CFM’s LEAP-1C for the C919 and GE’s CF34-10A for the ARJ21. However, the company heavily relies on imported engines and avionic systems, making it vulnerable to geopolitical and supply chain risks, even with a stockpile of parts offering only temporary security.
The domestic CJ-1000A engine, intended as an alternative, remains years from being ready. Gaining certification is also a significant challenge; the C919, operational since 2023, is unlikely to receive European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) certification before 2028, meaning international market expansion is curtailed. For now, COMAC is concentrating on building its domestic operations and selected regional placements.
Fleet Expansion and Utilization
As of August 2025, COMAC’s active fleet included 182 aircraft primarily operated by major carriers such as China Southern, Air China, and China Eastern. Other operators include Chengdu Airlines, China Express, VietJet, and Lao Airlines. The ARJ21’s daily usage has increased to 3.4 hours from less than one hour in 2018, while the C919 averages 2.6 hours daily since its debut. Although these figures fall short of the seven-hour industry standard for narrow-body jets, utilization rates are projected to improve as maintenance services develop and airline trust grows.
A Steady Ascent
IBA concludes that while COMAC may not challenge Airbus or Boeing globally within this decade, it is emerging as a competent multi-sector competitor. Backed by government support, expanding domestic demand, and progressing on international certification, COMAC is expected to become a more influential entity in the worldwide commercial aviation market.
